FERC Says SoCal in Danger of Blackouts

Southern California faces a greater threat of power outages this summer, according to a statement by FERC due to shrinking power reserves.

“This remains a concern despite implementation of demand response of more than 1,400 MW” projected by the state grid operator in late April, said Charles Whitmore, FERC’s senior market advisor.  FERC staff pointed to supply risks arising from decreased power imports to the state, as well as possible generation and transmission outages and summer temperatures on par with last summer’s heat waves.

CAISO, however, does not predict blackouts in Southern California this summer.  They quickly pointed to measures to curb peak demand and new generation coming online, adding that demand response programs have grown, but stressing that “Southern California’s load continues to grow--and most of the new generation that has come on line in the state since 2001 has been in Northern California.”  

FERC also noted that wholesale power prices are rising.  The continuing increase is attributed to higher natural gas prices because of increased demand from the fleet of new gas-fueled power plants, lower imports of liquefied natural gas and lower gas storage.

 

Interestingly, CEC also issued their summer assessment on the heals of this comment from FERC, and in thier assessment, they said that Southern California has a 3.8% chance of a staged emergency this summer, but that it still remains "below target reliability standards."

 

If nothing else, this should be read as a warning that our infrastructure to deal with our current and future energy demand is not in place.  Will we get lucky and squeeze through a hot summer without blackouts, or will we have finger pointing when the lights go out in the middle of July, August or September?