If you heard President Bush or any of the media talking heads make pronouncements about drilling in ANWR to bring oil prices off of their historic highs, and you believed the rhetoric, you are not alone. If you have heard this debate over the past few years (President Bush actually raised this as a proposal 7 years ago), you are likely one of the few who might also remember that federal legislators quickly shot down the idea every time it came up.
So, could ANWR save the day on oil prices? Not immediately. Similar to the regulatory problems we face in California, even if you could drill in ANWR or anywhere off the West Coast of the United States, assuming no significant delays from the regulatory side or from environmental lawsuits, the conservative estimate of that oil actually hitting the market would be in roughly 7 to 10 years. Pretty sobering, eh?
There is plenty of blame to go around. Presidential candidates have talked about their views, but none have actually articulated a path to true independence from the body that actually has the strangle-hold on the world oil prices: OPEC.
Another parallel to California here in my humble opinion (think of the California effort to move to a green energy future). If we really want to build a bridge to a world of energy independence, we need to employ all the technologies that are working in other parts of the world. From bio-fuels that could come from sugar to nuclear power. If we are really going put our money where our mouth is, we are going to have to engage an Apollo like “race to the moon” type of effort to get us to the independence we claim to want. Are we serious about all of this? I hope so, but so far not one of the candidates is offering such a vision.
What would it take? New infrastructure on a massive scale. The kind that would revolutionize R&D for new fuels, the kind that would re-invent our entire transportation system, from our cars to public transportation. Failure to do so will soon result in only the very wealthy being able to afford something we take for granted today – like jumping on a flight to wherever for bargain prices.
The signs are there – the collapse of some major airlines around the world are due to the cost of fuel – that pass-through cost will soon result in a diminishing travel pool – and more airline collapses. I think this is just the thing that could dislocate world economies. I hope I am totally wrong.
In the meantime, remember that you read it here first: only a new way of thinking and new infrastructure will save the day.
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