It’s the Infrastructure, Stupid

CAISO CEO Says Grid Needs 6 New Major Transmission Lines in Addition to Sunrise Powerlink and Tehachepi Transmission Line

Yakout Mansour, CAISO CEO, delivered keynote addresses this past week at the California Manufacturers and Technology Association’s Annual Energy Conference and at the California Council for the Environmental and Economic Balance conference.  In his nearly identical remarks at both conferences (Wednesday and Thursday, respectively), Mr. Mansour made some interesting pronouncements.  Following are the highlights:

 

·       California’s Transmission and Generation Siting process must be streamlined as it poses incredible challenges (particularly to goals for renewable portfolio standard— RPS, generation integration and greenhouse gas reduction – as well as providing necessary generation for California’s continued energy consumption growth)

·       Current

California

nameplate capacity is critical in meeting the 20% RPS under current law, achieving 33% RPS will be even more difficult

·         Current CAISO interconnection cue is 110K MWs – of this 70K MWs are renewable-this is generation proposals that are under consideration and must be studied by the CAISO to determine how and where they would connect to the grid

·         CAISO expects that 85% of this generation will not be built

·        CAISO study concludes that in addition to the Tehachepi and

Sunrise

transmission lines, 6 additional major transmission lines will be needed to help CA meet RPS, GHG and growth requirements.

Great News! The Fires in the Last few Weeks Have Slowed Global Warming

Is it possible that the smoke that we choked on for the past few weeks and the homes and lives lost were for a greater cause?  The fires actually will slow global warming?

 

According to scientists, the Arctic may cool for weeks or months at a time as smoke from northern wildfires drifts into the region, according to researchers at the

University

of

Colorado

and the

U.S.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The cooling effect was observed above the snow-free tundra and to a greater extent over the darker, ice-free ocean, according to the study which appears in the Journal of Geophysical Research.

 

The study claims that smoke in the atmosphere temporarily reduces the amount of solar radiation reaching the surface.  Robert Stone, an atmospheric scientist at the

University

of

Colorado

and lead author of the study, also said in a statement that the “transitory effect could partly offset some of the warming caused by the buildup of greenhouse gases and other pollutants.”

Warming temperatures are extending wildfire seasons, raising the threat to communities and to forest ecosystems, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said in a report last year.  Wildfires are likely to occur more often as warming increases the risk of drought and reduces the amount of winter snow that accumulates at higher elevations.

California

current wildfires forced 10,000 people to abandon their homes in the foothills of the

Sierra Nevada

earlier this month, the largest fire evacuation in the state this year. Wildfires are likely to increase in

California

, the West, Southwest and the Southeast, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency said in a report last week.

 

More Proof?

 

Researchers analyzed the short-term impact of wildfires that swept through

Alaska

and western

Canada

in 2004.  That summer, fires burned a record 10,000 square miles of

Alaska

's interior and another 12,000 square miles in western

Canada

.

 

Researchers as far away as Greenland and the Svalbard archipelago north of Norway also observed that smoke was blocking more solar radiation during the 2004 summer, suggesting that the effect North American wildfires was far-reaching.  Smoke from the same fires was observed as far south as the

Gulf of Mexico

.

So, should we encourage wildfires from time to time?  Are the preservationists right to not allow better harvesting of forests?  Have we heard anything about this from Al Gore?  Too many questions…  

Here We Go Again, A Stressed Out Grid

For the past three summers, we have had the same story.  Early in the year, the government agencies will state: "not to worry, the grid looks fine for this summer and it appears we will have plenty of energy to keep the lights on."  But as we have experienced in the past two consecutive summers, this one is no different.

For starters, this summer's fire season started a bit earlier than normal.  At one point in the last couple of weeks we were up to 1700 fires burning across California.  One national television network called their headline "California On Fire" -- indeed.  While we can be thankful for the brave men and women that have battled back these fires and have knocked the numbner down to around 500 fires currently burning, the problem is that 3 of those fires are currently threatening transmission lines in northern and central California.

Now add heat to the equation.  California this week is experiencing our second heatwave of the summer.  Stronger than the last one earlier in the year, the California Independent System Operator (CAISO)is predicting that consumtion may near the records we saw in 2006 (heaviest consumption of electricity is predicted for Wednesday and Thursday, given the anticipated high temperatures in major parts of the state).  The only potential good news is that the heatwave will likely be concentrated to California and not affect the rest of the West -- if it does, we are in trouble.

What happens if the heatwave does hit other Western states?  Well, that means that the power they would normally ship to California will likely be consumed at home, so the power for the region will be constrained and in short supply.  Ugly, right?

One more thing... The aging infrastructure.  Will our older power plants hold up to a third summer in a row of heatwaves, fires and transmission issues?  I know that the good folks that work at those places will do what they did the last two summers in a row and work their hardest to make sure that the facilities run and produce power.  But will the aging steel cooperate?

Once again, 2008 is what I call a "Summer of Hope."  Hope the fires don't disrupt transmission, hope the heatwaves don't engulf the whole west and that they don't last too long, and hope that the againg infrastructure holds up.  Wouldn't it be nice to say, "good thing we are building the necessary infrastructure to deal with this problem?"

Well, I "hope" that legislators and the regulators are paying attention.